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Weight and FTP Targets

My 20 minute max power comes in regularly at about 280w during my 2x20 sessions making my estimated FTP about 266w (although I'm testing this specifically later this week with the powertap and turbo). Since my weight is currently 76.1kg this means that today, with no wind, I would average 7.9mph whilst climbing the 8.6 miles up the 21 switchbacks of the Alpe D'Huez - taking me 65 minutes.
I'm currently out by almost 10%.

There is under 3 months to go. I need to either improve my FTP to 292w or I need to drop to 68kg. Neither is a realistic option so a happy compromise of both increased FTP and reduced Weight is required - but what should the goals be?

Doing the maths shows that every kilo that I lose will save me 3w on my FTP. Whilst the most optimistic sources suggest that the best I can expect from a 3 month dose of L4 training is a 10% increase in FTP and that is for an untrained individual - and that is not me.

The chart below helps to illustrate the dramatic impact of weight on FTP for 8.6mph up the Alpe D'Huez.

Looking at my power and weightloss data I believe my targets could realistically be to get to 72kg and an FTP of 280w, minimum. With no wind I would make it up in just under 60 minutes, a stretch target of of 290w and weight of 70kg would be fantastic, giving me a few valuable seconds.

So with all the pondering it looks like the targets set over two months ago are right; 292w FTP and 70kg.

Enough waffle, I'm off for a L4 workout.

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