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Etape 2007 Forecast

Whilst I'm busily number crunching and working out power to weight etc I thought I might as well forecast my Etape finish time ;-) On my bike, obviously.

Based upon an average power output of 180w over the entire ride, no wind, no stopping, no adrenalin, no further weightloss nor performance improvements over a fairly simplified route profile I have calculated a total ride time of 9:12:21. Making an average speed of 21.3km/h.

Here is the breakdown, if you're interested:

Obviously, "small" things like heat fatigue, wind and delays at the feed stations will push to total time way above this. I think a target of 9.5 hours is reasonable, with some canny drafting, good nutritional strategy and obviosusly some performance improvements I think I can hit that.

Can you tell that I'm couped up with no bike in a hotel on weekday evenings? ;-) Nothing to do except L4 killer sessions on a gym bike and watching TV. I really must look into buying a cheapo training bike, its such a shame I sold my old alu trek. Thankfully next week I've got 4 straight days in the office, with 4hrs daily commuting in the sunshine.
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